By John Stryker, Spreadsheet Maven

I’m working on my team report but even before I complete that, I felt an urge to expand upon some discussions that I had with several of you during the draft regarding the matter of drafting for WAR and the ranking of teams for this first year of the league, arranging the initial placement into the Premier and National Conferences.

First, I’m not going to address the philosophical point of which WAR scheme to use. I fully endorse the Executive Committee’s selecting of WAR as calculated by FanGraphs, but truly as long as we had a scheme selected beforehand (which we did) which scheme it was is immaterial. I may post something in the future with my musings about WAR and the variations that exist; if I do I will make sure to title it “WAR is Hell”.

Anyway, the FanGraphs scheme was selected, the endpoint of Round 30 was decided upon, and the question then became “Where does one want to be?”; it is here that I break with the conventional wisdom.

I heard from several of you, “You want the Premier!”, likely because there will be six teams making the playoffs from the Premier and only two making the playoffs (and getting promoted) from the National. I believe that this thinking is short-sighted. Let me explain.

My thinking centers on the theory that WAR to some degree is a proxy for actual team quality. I know from past research that there is a high correlation. The higher the correlation between WAR and quality, the stronger my argument that the BORDERLINE teams should have sought to drop, not raise, their ranking in the rounds approaching Round 30.

Look at where things stood in the Round 30 rankings. The Top Nine teams are tightly bunched between roughly 55.5 and 53.1 – a spread of 2.2 points. Then there is a gap of 2.5 points between 9 and 10, a gap of 1.9 points between 10 and 11, and a gap of 2.8 points between 11 and 12. The gap between 12 and 13 though – the most material gap in the system – is only 0.7 points!

Now we set our eyes on the National. Teams 13 and 14 are tight, then there is another tight bunch of the four teams from 15-18, with a total spread of 0.8 points! The gap between 18 and 19 is the single largest two-team gap in the table, 7.4 points, then the remaining teams follow.

Here’s how I see it, to the extent that WAR is a proxy for quality. The likely outcome is the top nine teams are fighting for the six Premier playoff spots, and the next three are more likely than not in a battle to avoid relegation. The top six National teams are likewise fighting for the guaranteed promotion slot and the four other spots in the play-in tournament.

The conventional wisdom: odds of playoffs are 50% in the Premier and 16.7% in the National.

My opinion: odds of playoffs are 66.7% for the better Premier teams, zero for the bottom Premier teams, 83.3% (five out of six) for some postseason chances for the better teams in the National, and zero for the teams in the bottom quadrant of the league.

Additional comments – let’s look at teams 12 and 13. While I am musing that the bottom teams have no chance in the Premier, team 12 is CAC. I know Wayne and while I have seen “interesting” personnel decisions from him at times, he’s a masterful game tactician and very experienced in the Strat tournament circuit. While WAR is just a number, it may not bear out in reality and Wayne could prove to be a tough opponent. Team 13 is TUV, our leader Scot. He was lamenting – LAMENTING – falling short in the WAR calculation and starting in the National. It would appear that he’s got the tools he needs to make his stay in the National a one-year sojourn, provided he can prove things out between the lines.

I also don’t mean to speak ill of those bottom six teams in the National. Yes, from a projection standpoint I am writing them off – but again, this must be proved out on the field. Many of these teams specifically chose a strategy of building for the future, and that was completely legitimate. Look for two of those teams to be the two teams promoted after the 2025 season.

Myself? I have held these theories from the beginning, but I did not seek to land in spots 13-15, which I saw as the sweet spot. I did not look directly at WAR as I selected players, but I did rely on WAR in my scouting to try and guess the next set of players likely to be picked. Perhaps for that reason I ended up prioritizing WAR more than I consciously intended to and I did make that Top Nine block in the Premier. More on this in my Team Outlook to come, but I’m somewhat concerned that my team will play to that estimate and be in the pennant hunt. The quality I’ve seen in ALL of you is very intimidating. I’ve said it several times already, this is a pool of sharks that I’ve jumped in to. I hope that I’m up to the task but I have my fears. More on that shortly.