For better or for worse, I went into the draft with no strategy. I was just going to see where the cards fell. At pick 22, I had no idea who would be there. I decided I’d go with the best available. My strategy was to try not to over index on youth. Youth is great, but so are 29-year-olds who have 7 years of All-Star quality play left. Throughout the draft I also use my somewhat proprietary Strat-based system (you may be able to google around to find it) that provides a vs LH and vs RH value that accounts for offense and defense (Ex. At SS 1e48 is about the same as a 2e28 which is about the same as a 3e6 and the difference between a 2e28 and a 2e19 at SS is turning 3 HRs into singles). At 22, Corey Seager was a screaming choice based on his 2023 card and I have always liked Kyle’s younger brother (I live in Seattle).
While Corey was my first step into the make a run for 2024 path, Matt Olson in the 2nd solidified it. I have always been an Olson fan and his 2023 card is killer. I was hoping not to completely sacrifice a future so I continued along the strong 2023 cards possessed by good players with Bregman and Freddy Peralta. After these picks, I started to go into a Tier system. I didn’t want to grab a catcher super early, but the run was going. I was hoping Sean Murphy would fall (damn you NWT) but was happy with the older Contreras in the 5th and was able to get one of the remaining ace cards left in Merrill Kelly in the 6th. After the Kelly pick, I really focused on who will be my playoff players (I know, rather presumptuous) and focused on hitters who hit well vs right-handed pitchers as it’s easier to fill in the short-side platoon. This led to the Ian Happ selection and then Reese Olson, Felix Bautista, Johan Oviedo, and Devin Williams. You can see, three of those four pitchers haven’t thrown a pitch in 2024!
I then started to fill in gaps. Centerfield vs RH? Let’s stick Mike Yastrzemski there and his 2(-1)e2 will work well. Best full time 2B? Brandon Drury and his serviceable but not ideal 3e4 2B card. Right field vs righties? Adam Duvall and his odd card (22.8% hit with 10.7% HR with an additional 8 BP homers but no ballpark singles). Once I had my lineup vs RH, I threw in some elite relief pitcher cards with Shelby Miller and another zero 2024 IP player in Moreta. Ultimately by round 26, I had what I wanted, my 26 players who would likely make up my playoff roster.
I think I have enough endurance to make it to the postseason and enough sprint to get through to the end. I’m not totally hosed for the 2025, season but I see scenarios where I go from competing for the title to competing to avoid relegation!
Grades
Starting Pitching: B+
Bullpen: A
Starting Lineup vs RH: A- (0.875 2023 MLB OPS)
Starting Lineup vs LH: A (0.913 2023 MLB OPS)
Defense: B- (but can bring it up to an A- with subs). Not thrilled with 3s at 2B and SS, but both are low error players.
Best Pick: Cristian Pache (R25). I was thrilled Cristian Pache fell to round 25. He is my CF vs LHP and my defensive sub at CF. I was looking at playing Richie Palacios and his 3(+1)e13 at CF vs LHP and now I get a 1(-1)e6 and his excellent bat vs LHP instead.
Worst Pick: Graham Pauley (R32). Pauley was my first minor pick. I totally forgot Pauley made it to the majors in 2024! It’s not surprising based on his stats (.125//.125/.313 over 32 plate appearance). Based on being in the Premiere division, I don’t see a chance he makes it onto the 2024 team. However, I can’t cry too much when what I feel is my worst pick was in Round 32.
Starting Lineup
C – Willson Contrares
1B – Matt Olson
2B – Brandon Drury
SS – Corey Seager
3B – Alex Bregman (vs. RHP) and Nick Senzel (vs. LHP)
LF – Ian Happ (vs. RHP) and Richie Palacios (vs. LHP)
CF – Mike Yastrzemski (vs RHP) and Cristian Pache (vs . LHP)
RF – Adan Duvall (vs. RHP) and Aaron Hicks (vs LHP)
DH – Donovan Solano
Bench
Jacob Stallings
Tommy Pham
Rotation
Freddy Peralta
Merrill Kelly
Reese Olson
Johan Oviedo
Bailey Ober
Colin Rea
Bullpen
Felix Bautista
Devin Williams
Shelby Miller
Dauri Moreta
Jake Diekman
Joe Kelly
Carmen Mlodzinski
Jesse Chavez
Perm Strat Minors (more 2024 players)
Dylan Moore
Starling Marte
Ryne Stanek
Sean Hjelle
Keenan Akin
MLB Minors
Graham Pauley
Joendry Vargas
Ralphy Velazquez