By Bernie Sheehe

Ancaster is making the race for best record in the National Conference (NC)—and the automatic promotion to Premier Conference (PC) that goes with it—a
runaway. Thus, the final PC promotion and entry into the playoffs this year will be decided by the winner of the 4-team Conference Tournament.

The battle for those 4 spots is a heated contest, with 6 teams having a good shot at making it into the post season event (of course another team could
catch fire but these six appear to be the ones in the fight now). Who will the 4 teams be and what 2 teams will be left out? Here are some insights on how
these six teams have fared up to this 92-game point in the season – and who might join the Dance at seasons end.

Team Actual Wins Expected Wins Difference
San Francisco 53 52 -1
Wausau 53 56 -3
Tuscany 51 58 -7
Montana 50 48 +2
Galesburg 46 47 -1
Space City 42 49 -7

The expected wins are based on the formula using Runs Scored and Runs allowed. As you can see 4 of the six are within 3 wins of their expected but
Tuscany and Space City are both 7 wins behind.

Of course, there can be many reasons for this – in Tuscany’s case they have gone 13-25 in one run games so that pretty much sums it up! Space City is -4 in one run wins, so perhaps Rick’s team has just been unlucky so far – but his .333 winning % on the road is a real issue!

Let take a quick look at each of the teams – since this looks like a real showdown between these teams we will use The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
to summarize.

SAN FRANCISCO

• THE GOOD – The Lightsabers are the most well balanced team – Home/Road, vs Lefty/Righty, Pitching/Hitting and they are in the top 20% of both runs scored and runs allowed in the Champions League(CL). They do not have any glaring holes.
• THE BAD – Had to really dig for this one but their defense is the only aspect of the team that does not rank in the top half.
• The UGLY – (will use this category to point out individuals who are performing way below expectations). For SF it would have to be Riley Greene, who has garnered a -.3 WAR compared to an expected WAR of 2.9 for the season. Austin Riley seems to be struggling with the dimensions of the home ballpark, with his power below expectations.

WAUSAU

• THE GOOD – The Barrel Men’s staff has performed the best of the six teams with a good balance between starters and pen. Cole Ragans has been a stud with 10 wins and a 1.96 ERA. Their defense has been a big contributor to this as they have a league low of 29 errors.
• THE BAD – The Wausau offense is in the 2nd tier with 403 runs scored. They rely on the long ball as their OBP and batting average are in the bottom 25% of the CL.
• THE UGLY – Anthony Santander is not playing up to expectations with only a .3 WAR compared to a 3.3 expected for the year. Ragans and Christopher Sanchez are both pitching way above expectations so could see some regression with them.

TUSCANY

• THE GOOD – Another well-balanced team in the top 25% of CL in both runs scored and runs allowed. They have a very balanced attack on offense with a .749 OPS vs both LH and RH pitching. The pen is very strong with a 2.99 ERA, but for some reason have blown 40% of their saves.
• THE BAD – The starting pitching could pick up the pace a bit but they are still good. Their HR total is one of the lowest in CL but in Kaufmann Stadium somewhat expected. Their .438 road winning % and their one run game record are their biggest bug-a-boos so if they correct them lookout!
• THE UGLY – The Vespas have most of their squad performing as they should with Bryce Harper 3rd in the CL in Batting Average. A part time player that has dragged down the offense is Ryan Noda with a -.9 WAR.

MONTANA

• THE GOOD – The Explorers pen has been one of the best in the league with a 2.49 ERA and a they have a strong defense with only 31 errors and an .824 X %.
• THE BAD – The offense has been anemic with one of the lowest run totals in the CL. No power at all as they only trail Charlotte for the fewest HR with 70.
• THE UGLY – Many culprits on offense but the standout is Jarren Duran who’s .5 WAR is way behind pace in achieving his 3.8 season WAR. He needs to pick it up for Montana to have hope.

GALESBURG

• THE GOOD – Well balanced with same Home/Road record and very similar mid-tier placement in the runs allowed/runs scored rankings.
• THE BAD – The Wizards need to improve a bit overall to dance at seasons end. The defense has allowed a high # of errors and X % is on lower 3 rd of CL. Also need to pick up the offense vs RH pitching as they are 7 games under .500 vs RH.
• THE UGLY – Wizard players have mostly performed up to expectations so far but Michael Conforto needs to pick it up as his -.8 WAR is way behind his 1.1.

SPACE CITY

• THE GOOD – Similar to Galesburg the Cowboys find themselves in the middle of the pack in both offense and pitching. The horses are there but all need to pick up the pace.
• THE BAD – The Space City pen has been seriously underperforming with a half-run ERA higher than the starters at 4.52. They also need to find a way to beat RH starters as their winning percentage is only .352 compared to .680 vs LH.
• THE UGLY – While leading the Cowboys in HR’s and RBI’s Adolis Garcia is still lagging behind his expected 5.3 WAR – only achieving 1.2 despite playing full time – his .212 average has a lot to do with it.

There you have the six primary contenders for the four post season Tourney spots and a chance to go all the way – who are you putting your money on?